Sunday, January 4

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NFL WILD-CARD PLAYOFFS

Baltimore (11-5, 12-4 ATS) at Miami (11-5, 8-8 ATS)

Two of the hottest teams in the league square off for the second time this season as the AFC East champion Dolphins, winners of five in a row, play host to the sixth-seeded Ravens, who won five of their last six games.

Miami knocked off the Jets 24-17 as a three-point road pup to help boot New York out of the playoffs and claim the division title, completing a worst-to-first turnaround after a 1-15 season in 2007, tying an NFL record. QB Chad Pennington (22 of 30, 200 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a solid outing, with his one fumble accounting for Miami's lone turnover, while the Dolphins defense picked off Jets QB Brett Favre three times and recovered a fumble. Miami finished on a 3-1 ATS surge.

Baltimore ripped Jacksonville 27-7 as a healthy 10-point home chalk, improving to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six contests, and the SU winner is now 25-2 ATS in the Ravens' last 27 games, including 15-1 ATS this season. Rookie QB Joe Flacco (17 of 23, 297 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a strong effort presiding over a turnover-free offense, and WR Mark Clayton had four catches for 128 yards. Baltimore forced four turnovers, including two Ed Reed INTs, helping clinch the AFC's final playoff spot.

Baltimore went to Miami on Oct. 19 and claimed a 27-13 road win as a three-point road underdog, slowing a 3-1 SU and ATS run by Miami in this rivalry. The underdog has cashed in the last four clashes between these two, including the Dolphins' 22-16 overtime win over the Ravens as a 3-point home pup last December. Miami's only victory of 2007.

Miami averaged 21.6 points (21st) and 345.6 total yards (12th) per game, with the league's 10th-best passing attack (227 ypg) and 11th-rated running game (118.6 ypg). Pennington showed he still has some gas in his tank, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,653 yards (ninth), with 19 TDs against just seven INTs. In fact, the Dolphins set a league record for a 16-game season with just 13 turnovers, beating the mark of 14 set by the Giants in 1990. RBs Ronnie Brown (916 yards, 10 TDs) and Ricky Williams (659 yards, 4 TDs) paced the ground attack.

Miami ranked eighth in scoring defense (19.8 ppg) and 15th in total defense (329 ypg). And helped by an offense that held onto the ball so well, the Dolphins finished with a plus-17 turnover differential.

Baltimore averaged 24.1 ppg (11th) and 324 ypg (18th), but they had the league's fourth-best ground attack at 148.5 ypg, with Le'Ron McClain (902 yards, 10 TDs) and Willis McGahee (671 yards, 7 TDs) combining for 1,573 yards. Flacco wasn't afraid to tuck the ball and run, as well, with 52 attempts for 152 yards and two TDs, and the rookie completed 60 percent of his passes for 2,971 yards and 14 TDs, though he had 12 INTs.

Defensively, Baltimore ranked second in yards allowed, at a stingy 261.1 per game, and third in scoring (15.2 ppg). With Reed's league-leading nine INTs paving the way, the Ravens finished at plus-13 in turnover differential.

The Dolphins cashed in just two of their eight home games this season and are on further ATS slides of 4-9-1 as a home pup, 11-24-1 after a spread-cover and 17-35-1 in their last 53 home games; however, they are on pointspread rolls of 6-1 overall as an underdog, 4-1 against winning teams and 8-3 against AFC opponents

The Ravens, meanwhile, carry several positive ATS trends, including 6-1 as a chalk, 6-1 against the AFC, 5-1 on the highway, 4-1 in road playoff games, 8-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a pointspread win. The only negatives: Baltimore is on ATS dips of 0-5 in January games and 1-8 as a road chalk..

The under for Miami is on tears of 8-2 overall, 4-1 at home, 5-0 in wild-card playoff games, 7-1 overall in the playoffs and 5-1 with the Dolphins as a playoff pup.

On the flip side, the over for the Ravens is on runs of 7-3-1 overall, 5-0-1 in roadies, 15-5-1 on grass and 13-5 against the AFC.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Philadelphia (9-6-1, 10-6 ATS) at Minnesota (10-6, 6-10 ATS)

The Eagles, who won four of their last five games to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, head to the Metrodome to battle the NFC North champion Vikings, who are on a 5-1 SU run and back in the postseason for the first time since 2005.

In a game that sent the winner to the playoffs and the loser home, Philadelphia battered Dallas 44-6 last week as 2-point home favorite, bouncing back nicely from a 10-3 loss at Washington as a 4 -point favorite. QB Donovan McNabb (12 of 21, 175 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) had a turnover-free day against the Cowboys and ran for a TD, and the Eagles finished with just one turnover while forcing a whopping five turnovers, including an INT and two fumbles from Cowboys QB Tony Romo. The Eagles scored back-to-back defensive touchdowns on long fumble returns to start the third quarter.

Minnesota rallied to beat the top-seeded Giants 20-19 as a seven-point home chalk to secure the division title, getting a 50-yard field goal from Ryan Longwell in the final seconds to beat a New York squad that was resting or limiting several key players. QB Tarvaris Jackson (16 of 26, 239 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a decent outing, despite committing the game's lone turnover, and RB Adrian Peterson (21 carries, 103 yards) had a 67-yard TD jaunt. That helped the Vikes overcome a nearly nine-minute deficit in time of possession (34:19-25:41).

Philadelphia is on a 4-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, having held Minnesota to 17 points or less in all four games. Most recently, the Eagles won 23-16 as a one-point road dog in October 2007. The favorite and the home team are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes. The Vikings' last postseason game came in Philadelphia in 2005, losing 27-14 as a 7-point chalk.

Philly sports the league's sixth-best scoring offense (26 ppg) and is ninth in total yards (350.5 per game), paced by the sixth-rated passing attack (244.4 ypg). McNabb completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs, against 11 INTs. RB Brian Westbrook, despite being dinged up a few times during the season, still rushed for 936 yards (4.0 ypc) and nine TDs, and he had 54 catches for another 402 yards and five scores.

Philadelphia fielded one of the league's best defenses, allowing per-game averages of 274.3 yards (third) and 18.1 points (fourth). The Eagles gave up just 182.1 passing ypg (third) and 92.2 rushing ypg (fourth), and they finished the year with a plus-3 turnover differential.

Minnesota averaged 23.7 points (12th) and 330.5 total ypg (17th), but they have the league's fifth-best rushing attack at 145.8 ppg, led by Peterson, who won the NFL's rushing title with 1,760 yards. The passing game nets just 184.8 ypg (25th) for the Vikings, who have gone back and forth this season between QBs Jackson and veteran Gus Frerotte, with Jackson now back in the starting role. Jackson, who started five games, completed 59.1 percent of his throws for 1,056 yards, with nine TDs and two INTs.

Minnesota led the league in rushing defense, allowing just 76.9 per game, and the Vikes ranked sixth in total defense (292.4 ypg) and 13th in scoring defense (20.8 ppg). However, the Vikings finished the season with a minus-6 turnover margin.

The Eagles are on ATS dips of 2-11-1 as a chalk of three points or less and 3-7-1 as a road favorite of any price, but they are otherwise on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 10-4 on the highway, 5-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 4-1 in the playoffs, 6-2 against the NFC and 7-3 against winning teams. On the flip side, the Vikings are on pointspread dives of 6-13 overall, 3-7 at the Metrodome, 0-4 getting three points or less at home, 1-4 as a home pup of any price and 2-9 after a SU win.

The under for Philadelphia is on rolls of 4-1 on the road, 40-16-5 as a favorite, 5-1-1 in the playoffs and 4-0-1 as a playoff chalk. And for Minnesota, the under is on stretches of 5-1 in January, 4-1-1 in playoff games and 26-12-1 coming off a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and UNDER

Al DeMarco, General Manager of ATS Edge.com and the featured handicapping analyst on SportsNet New York's Daily News Live, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Watch Today's Free Video Report for his Complimentary NFL Pick on Philadelphia-Minnesota. No purchase necessary; no registration required. Get them now
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